18 Jul 2025

Antecedent Precipitation Tool (APT) Version 3.0 : Technical and User Guide

Abstract: This document provides an overview of the technical components of the Antecedent Precipitation Tool (APT) and a user’s guide for the APT. The APT is an automation tool that the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) developed to facilitate the comparison of antecedent or recent precipitation conditions for a given location to the range of normal precipitation conditions that occurred during the preceding 30 yr.* In addition to providing a standardized methodology to evaluate normal precipitation conditions (precipitation normalcy), the APT queries additional datasets to compute drought condition indices and the approximate dates of the wet and dry seasons for a given location. The latest update to the APT builds upon the precipitation normalcy methodology by generating streamflow normalcy for the United States Geological Survey (USGS) gage and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Water Model (NWM) simulation results. The update also expands the APT’s analysis domain to include Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands.

17 Jul 2025

Overview of the Coastal STORM (CSTORM) Model Development for the Swan Island Restoration Study

Abstract: This document summarizes the numerical model development and validation approach used to simulate the winds, waves, and water levels observed at Swan Island during two prominent historical storm events in the region: Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Isabel. Using the Coastal STORM (CSTORM) Modeling System, which couples the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) and Steady-State Spectral WAVE (STWAVE) models, the North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study mesh and grid were refined in the area surrounding Swan Island. The nodal attributes of the ADCIRC mesh in the area surrounding Swan Island were updated to reflect the location of submerged aquatic vegetation around the island. ADCIRC-modeled water levels were in acceptable agreement with observed water levels during both storms, though peak water levels were slightly underpredicted. Similarly, STWAVE captured the phase and trends of the significant wave heights during the storm, while slightly underpredicting both significant wave height and peak period. The validated model will be used to investigate the effect of the restoration of Swan Island on the surrounding area. The results will help to develop guidelines for best practices in island restoration within the Chesapeake Bay and beyond.

17 Jul 2025

The Profile Feature Extraction Toolbox User’s Guide

Abstract: The Profile Feature Extraction Toolbox was created by the Joint Airborne Lidar Bathymetry Technical Center of Expertise (JALBTCX) to extract profile features from high-resolution topobathymetric lidar datasets using a transect methodology. This user’s guide details the JALBTCX Toolbox framework, the Profile Feature Extraction Toolbox, and then walks the user through each step within the toolbox to be used alongside example data from Golovin, Alaska. Best practices and example data figures are included for additional assistance to new users. For the full documentation of the JALBTCX Toolbox framework, please see https://cirpwiki.info/wiki/JALBTCX.

3 Jul 2025

Inner Harbor Navigation Canal Lock Replacement Study: Hydrodynamic Modeling and Ship Simulation

Abstract: The Inner Harbor Navigation Canal (IHNC) Lock connects the Mississippi River to the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, surrounded by developed areas in New Orleans, Louisiana. Tow transit times through the current IHNC lock take up to 20 hours. The US Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District, has proposed constructing a new lock to reduce tow transit times significantly. However, the new lock will have potential effects on vehicle traffic patterns due to the three bridges across IHNC. To address potential navigation issues, hydrodynamic modeling and ship simulations of the study area were conducted for the three phases of the project: new lock construction, present lock deconstruction, and proposed new lock design. The hydrodynamic model was developed and validated to present conditions, simulating various water levels across the lock structure to provide water levels and currents for ship simulation. The ship simulation was used to record transit times to determine impacts of the waterborne vessel traffic on vehicular traffic due to bridge raising and lowering, as well as navigability of the bypass channels associated with lock construction and existing lock deconstruction. Elicitation from the towing industry was used to inform final design of the new IHNC lock and bypass channels.

16 Jun 2025

Estuarine Dams and Weirs: Global Analysis and Synthesis

Abstract: Estuarine dams and weirs are constructed in estuaries for blocking the salt intrusion, securing freshwater, and stabilizing upstream water levels. While they can provide many social benefits, they also alter physical and sedimentary processes. To address this, we perform and extensive remote sensing and literature analysis. Remote sensing was conducted based on a global river database of 1531 rivers representing the largest rivers cumulatively draining 85 % of the landmass discharging into the global ocean. It was found that 9.7 % of global estuaries and deltas are currently affected by estuarine dams or weirs acting as the upstream limit of salt, tide, or storm surge intrusion. Most estuarine dams and weirs are located at x = 0–100 km inland from the mouth and their discharge intervals can be continuous. They are found most in river mouths which are wave-dominated followed by tide-dominated and then river-dominated. They can cause significant changes to the quantity and timing of freshwater discharge, tides, stratification, turbidity, sedimentation, oxygen conditions, phytoplankton blooms, and fish migration. We propose a conceptual model for physical and geomorphological change in mixed wave- and river-dominated and tide-dominated estuaries with estuarine dams.

16 Jun 2025

Enhancing Resilience: Integrating Future Flood Modeling and Socio-Economic Analysis in the Face of Climate Change Impacts

Abstract: As climate change intensifies, floods will become more severe in some areas with geographic variation, necessitating governments implementing systems providing information for climate adaptation. We aimed to develop a methodology identifying areas at an increased risk. In this study, 100-year recurrence interval flood extents and depths were estimated using an ensemble of six independent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models for a past and future period under the highest-emissions climate scenario. The flood inundation results were related to social vulnerability for two study areas in the Mississippi River Basin. To identify at-risk areas, the relationship between the spatial distribution of flood depths and vulnerability was assessed. Finally, an analysis of current and future damages on infrastructure from flooding on residential housing to determine whether damages correlated with higher vulnerability areas. Results show flood extents and depths are increasing in the future, ranging from an increase of 6 to 76 km2 in extent. A statistically significant relationship between spatial clusters of flooding and of vulnerability was found. Overall, a framework was established to holistically understand the hydrologic and socioeconomic impacts of climate change, and a methodology was developed for allocating resources at the local scale.

13 Jun 2025

User Guidelines on Catchment Post-Wildfire Hydrological Modeling

Abstract: Wildfires significantly alter watershed hydrology by increasing runoff due to reduced infiltration from soil-water repellency. To predict long-term wildfire impacts, a coupled framework was developed to simulate postfire changes in soil hydraulic properties, infiltration, and hydrological response. This framework integrates Wildfire-Induced Soil Hydraulic (WISH) Factors with a Soil-Moisture Threshold (SMT) formulation in the Green and Ampt infiltration model, representing reduced infiltration due to water repellency. Postfire inputs, including burn severity, soil type, and land use, are formatted for the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model to ensure realistic hydrological simulations. The approach was applied to the 41.7 km² Upper Arroyo Seco watershed in northeast Los Angeles County, where 95% of the area was burned during the August 2009 Station Fire. Hydrological simulations effectively captured increased water repellency and excess runoff following postfire rainfall, demonstrating the model’s ability to represent wildfire-induced watershed changes and improve postfire hydrological assessments.

11 Jun 2025

Prediction of Waterborne Freight Activity with Automatic Identification System Using Machine Learning

Abstract: This paper addresses latency issues related to publicly available port-level commodity tonnage reports. Predicting commodity tonnage at the port-level, near real time vessel tracking data is used with historical WCS with a machine learning model. Commodity throughput is derived from WCS data which is released publicly approximately two years after collection. This latency presents a challenge for short-term planning and other operational uses. This study leverages near real time vessel tracking data from the AIS data set. LSTM, TCN, and TFT machine learning models are developed using the features extracted from AIS and the historical WCS data. The output of the model is the prediction of the quarterly volume of commodities at port terminals for four quarters in the future. Uncategorized and Categorized models were developed. The uncategorized outperformed the categorized based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The uncategorized LSTM model has the highest accuracy. Results show the model has higher accuracy for port terminals that handle a specific type of vessel, compared to the port terminals handling more than one vessel type. The application of the model enables port authorities and stakeholders to make short-term capacity expansion and infrastructure investment decisions based on commodity volume.

4 Jun 2025

Floridan Aquifer System (FAS) Aquifer Material Collection and Screening: Investigating Arsenic Fate and Transport Under Lab-Simulated Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) Conditions in the FAS—Task A Report

Abstract: The US Army Engineer Research Development Center is leading a laboratory study to quantify arsenic release that could occur during large-scale aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) operations in the anoxic Floridan Aquifer System (FAS). FAS materials containing arsenic must be collected and preserved under anoxic conditions to complete the laboratory study. This report describes collection, preservation, and initial characterization results of FAS material collected. Analysis of water surrounding the FAS material during storage detected some arsenic, suggesting arsenic presence in the solids. In-depth characterization of a single sample confirmed storage conditions were anoxic; no arsenic was detected in surface scrapings collected from the sample solids. Initial characterization results suggested FAS materials collected were suitable for use in the planned laboratory study and that storage methods were suitable for preserving collected materials.

3 Jun 2025

Development and Validation of NOAA’s 20-Year Global Wave Ensemble Reforecast

Abstract: A 20-yr wave reforecast was generated based on the NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12. It was produced using the same setup as the NCEP’s operational GEFSv12 wave component. The reforecast comprises five members with 1 cycle per day and a forecast range of 16 days. Once a week, it expands to 35 days and 11 members. This paper describes the development of the wave ensemble reforecast, focusing on validation against buoys and altimeters. The statistical analyses demonstrated very good performance in the short range for significant wave height, with correlation coefficients of 0.95–0.96 on day 1 and between 0.86 and 0.88 within week 1, along with bias close to zero. After day 10, correlation coefficients fall below 0.70. The degradation of predictability and the increase in scatter errors predominantly occur in the forecast lead time between days 4 and 10, in terms of the ensemble mean and individual members, including the control. For week 2 and beyond, a probabilistic spatiotemporal analysis of the ensemble space provides useful forecast guidance. Our results provide a framework for expanding the usefulness of wave ensemble data in operational forecasting applications.