24 Sep 2025

Simulating Environmental Conditions for a Severe Dust Storm in Southwest Asia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Model Configuration Sensitivity Study

Abstract: Dust aerosols create hazardous air quality conditions that affect human health, visibility, and military operations. Numerical weather prediction models are important tools for predicting atmospheric dust by simulating dust emission, transport, and chemical evolution. We assessed the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model’s ability to simulate the atmospheric conditions that drove a major dust event in Southwest Asia during July–August 2018. We evaluated five WRF configurations against satellite observations and Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5) reanalysis data, focusing on the event’s synoptic evolution, storm progression, vertical structure, and surface wind fields. Results revealed substantial differences between configurations using Noah and Noah Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface models (LSMs), with Noah providing a superior representation of meteorological conditions despite theoretical expectations of similar performance in arid environments. The best-performing configuration (Noah LSM, Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino planetary boundary layer scheme, and spectral nudging) of the five considered accurately simulated the progression of a low-level jet streak and the associated surface winds responsible for dust mobilization throughout the event. This study supports the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center’s efforts to improve dust forecasting and establishes a foundation for evaluating dust emission parameterizations by isolating meteorological forcing errors from dust model physics.

19 Sep 2025

Cooling Perspectives on the Risk of Pathogenic Viruses from Thawing Permafrost

Abstract: Climate change is inducing wide-scale permafrost thaw in the Arctic and subarctic, triggering concerns that long-dormant pathogens could reemerge from the thawing ground and initiate epidemics or pandemics. Viruses, as opposed to bacterial pathogens, garner particular interest because outbreaks cannot be controlled with antibiotics, though the effects can be mitigated by vaccines and newer antiviral drugs. To evaluate the potential hazards posed by viral pathogens emerging from thawing permafrost, we review information from a diverse range of disciplines. This includes efforts to recover infectious virus from human remains, studies on disease occurrence in polar animal populations, investigations into viral persistence and infectivity in permafrost, and assessments of human exposure to the enormous viral diversity present in the environment. Based on currently available knowledge, we conclude that the risk posed by viruses from thawing permafrost is no greater than viruses in other environ¬ments such as temperate soils and aquatic systems.

18 Sep 2025

Standard Operating Procedures for the Design, Construction, and Maintenance of Summer Roads and Trails, Drop Zones, and Firebreaks in Cold Regions

Abstact: As DoD investments across Alaska increase in response to DoD Arctic strategies, expanded training opportunities are necessary to enable the military to enhance their Arctic capabilities. In addition, wildfire management is increasingly important in the area as the summer season has expanded and warmed in recent decades. This report addresses the siting, design, construction, and maintenance of summer roads and trails, drop zones, and firebreaks on DoD lands in Alaska and other cold regions. It considers the harsh weather conditions, extreme seasonality, and remoteness of these environments, in addition to the general requirements of understanding the local environment, relevant risks, permitting, and regulations. The three types of linear infrastructure are assessed together as each involves the clearing of land and maintaining it as cleared, and therefore share common risks. This report summarizes best practices throughout the project lifecycle and synthesizes risk mitigation strategies informed by a comprehensive literature review and conversations with local training land managers. Using Fort Wainwright in Interior Alaska as an example, it provides Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) to aid land managers and military unit leadership as they navigate challenges and opportunities in their increased use of these critical linear infrastructure types in high latitude environments.

16 Sep 2025

Standard Operating Procedures for the Design, Maintenance, and Operation of Arctic and Subarctic Winter Roads

Abstract: Operations in cold regions require vehicular maneuvering across snowpacks or frozen surfaces. Winter roads and their route determination, construction, and monitoring are widely studied. This report analyzes historical and current literature on winter road construction and operations, reviews risk assessment techniques, examines the impact of uncertain weather on road reliability, and provides a standard operating procedure for design, maintenance, and use. Winter roads, snow roads, ice roads, and ice bridges enable seasonal access in Arctic and Subarctic regions. They allow cross-country maneuverability over terrain like wetlands and bogs, which are impassable in summer. These roads are critical for training, logistics, and construction in areas without all-season access. When combined with ice bridges they can provide near-unlimited travel. Effectiveness depends on proper planning, construction, and monitoring. Snow roads require controlled compaction for strength, while ice roads require sufficient ice thickness to support loads. Both rely on tools like visual inspections, ground-penetrating radar, and unmanned aerial systems to ensure safety. With extreme seasonal variability, adaptive strategies are essential. Shortened seasons and unpredictable freeze–thaw cycles demand modern technologies, predictive weather modeling, and improved reinforcement. This report integrates historical knowledge with engineering advancements to improve winter road durability, reduce risks, and support cold-region operations.

15 Sep 2025

Standard Operating Procedures for the Design, Construction, and Maintenance of Linear Infrastructure in Fens in Cold Regions

Abstract: In Alaska and across the Arctic and Subarctic, winter conditions can enable the expansion of linear infrastructure across the frozen landscape of fen wetlands. This expands military training opportunities into lowland wet, boggy, mostly impassable terrain. However, there are personnel, civilian, and environmental risks from using fens as travel corridors and drop zones. The effective design, construction, operation, and maintenance of such infrastructure on fens supports the dual mandate of troop training to fulfill the mission and protect the environment. This Technical Report (TR) addresses the risks of the establishment and use of linear infrastructure on the DoD lands in Alaska and in other austere cold environments where the DoD operates. This TR is founded on a review of methods used by US Army Installations, focusing primarily on Fort Wainwright in Interior Alaska. It establishes basic standard operating procedures (SOPs) by drawing on federal agency and international best practices and emerging research in circumpolar regions and beyond. This TR serves as a reference document for military land and infrastructure planners and unit leadership to create and maintain linear infrastructure on fens as environmental challenges evolve and opportunities develop to further the Army mission in high latitude environments.

15 Sep 2025

Standard Operating Procedures for the Design, Maintenance, and Operation of Freshwater Ice Bridges

Abstract: Operations in cold regions inevitably require maneuvering across, through, or atop frozen surfaces. Ice bridges are special components of winter linear infrastructure that can have significant impacts on mission targets. Proper siting, design, monitoring, and operation of ice bridges reduces potential environmental impacts and decreases risks to personnel and equipment. The US Army operates multiple ice bridge crossings on training lands in Alaska and collaborates with other countries in training events that use them. They are a likely means of travel for potential operations in cold regions. However, the US Army lacks up to date guidance on the design, maintenance, and operation of ice bridges. This report addresses this need by providing a set of standard operating procedures that have been developed from a broad synthesis of ice bridge usage in northern regions. In addition, it reviews all relevant historic and current literature regarding ice bridges, describes risk assessment and mitigation techniques for ice bridge operations, discusses specific considerations for US Army training areas in Alaska, and briefly describes important ramifications of changing weather conditions and increasing uncertainty as they relate to ice bridge life span.

11 Sep 2025

A Calibration Method for Projecting Future Extremes via a Linear Mapping of Parameters

Abstract: In order to study potential impacts arising from climate change, future projections of numerical model output often must be calibrated to be comparable to observations. Rather than calibrating the data values themselves, we propose a novel statistical calibration method for extremes that assumes there exists a linear relationship between parameters associated with model output and parameters associated with observations. This approach allows us to capture uncertainty in both parameter estimates and the linear calibration, which we achieve via bootstrap. To focus on extreme behavior, we assume both model output and observations have distributions composed of a mixture model combining a Weibull distribution with a generalized Pareto distribution for the tail. A simulation study shows good coverage rates. We apply the method to project future daily-averaged river runoff at the Purgatoire River in southeastern Colorado.

11 Sep 2025

Effect of Gypsum on Transport of IMX-104 Constituents in Overland Flow Under Simulated Rainfall

Abstract: Residue of energetic formulations, deposited on military training grounds following incomplete detonation, poses biotic hazards. This residue can be transported off-site, adsorb to soil clays and organic matter, transform or degrade, or taken up by plants and animals. Its harmful effects can be mitigated by localizing the energetics at the initial deposition using soil amendments and allowing them to bio- and photodegrade in situ. Small plots with coarse loamy soil were used to study the effect of gypsum on transport and redistribution under simulated rainfall of various sizes of insensitive munition explosive IMX-104 particles. The addition of gypsum more than doubled infiltration and decreased sediment loss by 16%. The post-rainfall mass balance of IMX-104 in the order from greater to smaller pools was: (1) soil surface retention, (2) off-site loss to overland flow, and (3) sub-surface infiltration. The application of gypsum decreased concentration and the total mass loss of dissolved DNAN, RDX, and HMX in surface runoff. In addition, gypsum significantly decreased or delayed the peak discharge of <2mm particulate energetics. Gypsum shifted the total mass balance of energetics toward subsurface flow. This study indicates gypsum may decrease off-site transport of energetic constituents in the soils subject to surface sealing.

10 Sep 2025

Snow Depth Measurements from Arctic Tundra and Boreal Forest Collected During NASA SnowEx Alaska Campaign

Abstract: Boreal forest and Arctic tundra environments collectively hold the largest percentage of global terrestrial seasonal snow cover. Тhe in-situ snow measurement network is sparse and costly in these remote northern regions. Here, we complement existing snow depth monitoring in Arctic tundra and boreal forest by presenting an extensive (64°N–70°N) snow depth dataset and description of ground-based snow depth measurements collected during the NASA SnowEx Alaska intensive field campaign, March 7–16, 2023. We also report the accuracy of snow depth measurements in shallow boreal forest and Arctic tundra snowpack and share considerations in developing the consistent and repeatable snow depth data collection procedures. Snow depth measurements and technical validation described in this paper can serve as a robust product for testing snow remote sensing techniques, and for providing a reference dataset for climatological and hydrological studies.

10 Sep 2025

Mapping the Vulnerability of Boreal Permafrost in Central Alaska in Relation to Thaw Rate, Ground Ice, and Thermokarst Development

Abstract: Permafrost roughly affects half the boreal region in Alaska and varies greatly in its thermophysical properties and genesis. In boreal ecosystems, permafrost formation and degradation respond to complex interactions among climate, topography, hydrology, soils, vegetation, and disturbance. We synthesized data on soil thermal conditions and permafrost characteristics to assess current permafrost conditions in central Alaska, and classified and mapped soil landscapes vulnerable to future thaw and thermokarst development. Permafrost soil properties at 160 sites ranged from rocky soils in hillslope colluvium and glacial till, to silty loess, to thick peats on abandoned floodplains and bogs, across 64 geomorphic units. To assess the vulnerability of permafrost to climate variability and disturbance, we differentiated permafrost responses in terms of rate of thaw, potential thaw settlement, and thermokarst development. Using a rule-based model that uses geomorphic units for spatial extrapolation at the landscape scale, we mapped 10 vulnerability classes across three areas ranging from high potential settlement/low thaw rate in extremely ice-rich loess to low potential settlement/high thaw rate in rocky hillslope colluvium. Vulnerability classes corresponded to thermokarst features developed in response to past climates. Differing patterns in permafrost vulnerability have large implications for ecosystem trajectories, land use, and infrastructure damage from thaw.