25 Mar 2022

Assessment of the COVID-19 Infection Risk at a Workplace Through Stochastic Microexposure Modeling

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on economy. Decisions regarding the reopening of businesses should account for infection risks. This paper describes a novel model for COVID-19 infection risks and policy evaluations. The model combines the best principles of the agent-based, microexposure, and probabilistic modeling approaches. It takes into account specifics of a workplace, mask efficiency, and daily routines of employees, but does not require specific interagent rules for simulations. Likewise, it does not require knowledge of microscopic disease related parameters. Instead, the risk of infection is aggregated into the probability of infection, which depends on the duration and distance of every contact. The probability of infection at the end of a workday is found using rigorous probabilistic rules. Unlike previous models, this approach requires only a few reference data points for calibration, which are more easily collected via empirical studies. The application of the model is demonstrated for a typical office environment and for a real-world case. The proposed model allows for effective risk assessment and policy evaluation when there are large uncertainties about the disease, making it particularly suitable for COVID-19 risk assessments.

16 Mar 2022

Investigating the Influence of Demographics and Personality Types on Practitioners' Level of Systems Thinking Skills

Abstract: Although the application of systems thinking (ST) has become essential for practitioners when dealing with turbulent and complex environments, there are limited studies available in the current literature that investigate how the ST skills of practitioners vary with regard to demographic factors and personality types (PTs). To address this gap, this article uses a structural equation modeling approach to explore the relationship be-tween practitioners’ ST skills, PT, and a set of demographic factors. The demographic factors included in the study are education level, the field of the highest degree, organizational ownership structure, job experience, and current occupation type. A total of 99 engineering managers, 104 systems engineers (SEs), and 55 practitioners with other occupations participated in this article. Results showed that the education level, the field of the highest degree, PT, organizational ownership structure, and current job experience of practitioners influenced their level of ST skills. Additionally, the current occupation type of practitioners partially affects their level of ST skills. An in-depth analysis was also conducted using multiple group analysis to show how seven ST skills of the practitioners vary across their level of education. Taken together, the findings of the study suggest that PT and a set of demographic factors influence the overall ST skill of the practitioners.

15 Mar 2022

Autonomous GPR Surveys using the Polar Rover Yeti

Abstract: The National Science Foundation operates stations on the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland to investigate Earth’s climate history, life in extreme environments, and the evolution of the cosmos. Understandably, logistics costs predominate budgets due to the remote locations and harsh environments involved. Currently, manual ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys must preceed vehicle travel across polar ice sheets to detect subsurface crevasses or other voids. This exposes the crew to the risks of undetected hazards. We have developed an autonomous rover, Yeti, specifically to conduct GPR surveys across polar ice sheets. It is a simple four-wheel-drive, battery-powered vehicle that executes autonomous surveys via GPS waypoint following. We describe here three recent Yeti deployments, two in Antarctica and one in Greenland. Our key objective was to demonstrate the operational value of a rover to locate subsurface hazards. Yeti operated reliably at −30 ◦C, and it has good oversnow mobility and adequate GPS accuracy for waypoint-following and hazard georeferencing. It has acquired data on hundreds of crevasse encounters to improve our understanding of heavily crevassed traverse routes and to develop automated crevasse-detection algorithms. Importantly, it helped to locate a previously undetected buried building at the South Pole. Yeti can improve safety by decoupling survey personnel from the consequences of undetected hazards. It also enables higher-quality systematic surveys to improve hazard-detection probabilities, increase assessment confidence, and build datasets to understand the evolution of these regions. Yeti has demonstrated that autonomous vehicles have great potential to improve the safety and efficiency of polar logistics.

14 Mar 2022

The Blowing Snow Hazard Assessment and Risk Prediction Model: A Python Based Downscaling and Risk Prediction for Snow Surface Erodibility and Probability

Abstract: Blowing snow is an extreme terrain hazard causing intermittent severe reductions in ground visibility and snow drifting. These hazards pose significant risk to operations in snow-covered regions. While many ingredients-based forecasting methods can be employed to predict where blowing snow is likely to occur, there are currently no physically based tools to predict blowing snow from a weather forecast. However, there are several different process models that simulate the transport of snow over short distances that can be adapted into a terrain forecasting tool. This report documents a downscaling and blowing-snow prediction tool that leverages existing frameworks for snow erodibility, lateral snow transport, and visibility, and applies these frameworks for terrain prediction. This tool is designed to work with standard numerical weather model output and user-specified geographic models to generate spatially variable forecasts of snow erodibility, blowing snow probability, and deterministic blowing-snow visibility near the ground. Critically, this tool aims to account for the history of the snow surface as it relates to erodibility, which further refines the blowing-snow risk output. Qualitative evaluations of this tool suggest that it can provide more precise forecasts of blowing snow. Critically, this tool can aid in mission planning by downscaling high-resolution gridded weather forecast data using even higher resolution terrain dataset, to make physically based predictions of blowing snow.

11 Mar 2022

Field Guide to Identifying the Upper Extent of Stream Channels

ABSTRACT: The upper extent of a channel is a transition zone from the hillslope to the beginning of the stream channel. Accurately and consistently identifying the upper extent of a channel in the field and locating where hillslope processes transition to stream-channel processes can be a difficult task. Physical characteristics located at the beginning of a channel (i.e., channel head), including geomorphic, sediment, and vegetation indicators, can vary significantly across different landscapes in the United States. Remote tools are useful for examining the upper extent of channels, but these remote tools have limitations for identifying the beginning of channels. Even as the resolution of remote data continues to increase, field observations are necessary to validate the remote data on the ground and to accurately and consistently identify and locate the transition from the hillslope to the stream channel. Use of a combination of remote and field evidence is likely the most successful strategy for identifying channel heads. This report presents a case study that demonstrates how a weight-of-evidence approach can combine field and remote evidence to locate the different parts of the transition and ultimately to identify the channel-head location.

9 Mar 2022

Full-Scale Evaluation of Multi-axial Geogrids in Road Applications

Abstract: The U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) constructed a full-scale unsurfaced test section to evaluate the performance of two prototype geogrids, referred to as NX950 and NX750, in road applications. The test section consisted of a 10-in.-thick crushed aggregate surface layer placed over a very weak 2 California Bearing Ratio (CBR) clay subgrade. Simulated truck traffic was applied using one of ERDC’s specially designed load carts outfitted with a single-axle dual wheel truck gear. Rutting performance and instrumentation response data were monitored at multiple traffic intervals. It was found that the prototype geogrids improved rutting performance when compared to the unstabilized test item, and that the test item containing NX950 had the best rutting performance. Further, instrumentation response data indicated that the geogrids reduced measured pressure and deflection near the surface of the subgrade layer. Pressure response data in the aggregate layer suggested that the geogrids redistributed applied pressure higher in the aggregate layer, effectively changing the measured stress profile with an increase in pavement depth.

2 Mar 2022

Modernizing Environmental Signature Physics for Target Detection—Phase 3

Abstract: The present effort (Phase 3) builds on our previously published prior efforts (Phases 1 and 2), which examined methods of determining the probability of detection and false alarm rates using thermal infrared for buried object detection. Environmental phenomenological effects are often represented in weather forecasts in a relatively coarse, hourly resolution, which introduces concerns such as exclusion or misrepresentation of ephemera or lags in timing when using this data as an input for the Army’s Tactical Assault Kit software system. Additionally, the direct application of observed temperature data with weather model data may not be the best approach because metadata associated with the observations are not included. As a result, there is a need to explore mathematical methods such as Bayesian statistics to incorporate observations into models. To better address this concern, the initial analysis in Phase 2 data is expanded in this report to include (1) multivariate analyses for detecting objects in soil, (2) a moving box analysis of object visibility with alternative methods for converting FLIR radiance values to thermal temperature values, (3) a calibrated thermal model of soil temperature using thermal IR imagery, and (4) a simple classifier method for automating buried object detection.

2 Mar 2022

Wabash and Ohio River Confluence Hydraulic and Sediment Transport Model Investigation: A Report for US Army Corps of Engineers, Louisville District

Abstract: Avulsions of the Wabash River in 2008 through 2011 at its confluence with the Ohio River resulted in significant shoaling in the Ohio River. This caused a re-alignment of the navigation channel and the need for frequent dredging. A two-dimensional numerical hydrodynamic model, Adaptive Hydraulics (AdH), was developed to simulate base (existing) conditions and then altered to simulate multiple alternative scenarios to address these sediment issues. The study was conducted in two phases, Phase 1 in 2013 – 2015 and Phase 2 in 2018 – 2020. Field data were collected and consisted of multi-beam bathymetric elevations, bed sediment samples, suspended sediment samples, and discharge and velocity measurements. The model hydrodynamic and sediment transport computations adequately replicated the water surface slope, flow splits, bed sediment gradations, and suspended sediment concentrations when compared with field data. Thus, it was shown to be dependable as a predictive tool. The alternative that produced the most desirable results included a combination of three level-crested emergent dikes on Wabash Island and four submerged dikes on the Illinois shore with a level crest from the bank to the tip of the dike. The selected alternative produced an improved sailing line while maintaining authorized channel depths.

2 Mar 2022

Engineering With Nature Website User Guide

Abstract: The Engineering With Nature (EWN) program is a high-profile effort that aims to deliver cost-effective, broadly beneficial solutions to natural re-source and sustainability challenges across the nation. A portion of this is accomplished through the use of the EWN website, which features news, podcasts, articles, and more. The content on the EWN website serves to educate and inform hundreds of visitors monthly. This content is generated and managed by EWN team members with web development experience, as it requires manually editing the website HTML and staging changes on a development server. With the EWN website 2.0, a new website framework (WordPress) has been implemented that will save content managers time and effort by providing a front-end user interface (UI) to enable the uploading, staging, and approval of new content for the website, along with a visual refresh to herald the impending release of season 2 of the EWN Podcast. This document’s purpose is to demonstrate the functionality of the new EWN website and provide instructional material for those managing content via the new EWN website.

2 Mar 2022

High Efficiency Fuel Sleds for Polar Traverses

Abstract: We describe here the evolution of lightweight, high-efficiency fuel sleds for Polar over-snow traverses. These sleds consist of flexible bladders strapped to sheets of high molecular weight polyethylene. They cost 1/6th, weigh 1/10th and triple the fuel delivered per towing tractor compared with steel sleds. An eight-tractor fleet has conducted three 3400-km roundtrips to South Pole with each travers delivering 320,000 kg of fuel while emitting <1% the pollutants, consuming 1/2 the fuel and saving $1.6 M compared with aircraft resupply. A two-tractor fleet in Greenland recently delivered 83,000 kg of fuel in bladder sleds to Summit with similar benefits. Performance monitoring has revealed that bladder-sled towing resistance is largely governed by sliding friction, which can start high and drop in half over the first 30 min of travel. Frictional heating probably produces a thin water layer that lubricates the sled–snow interface. Consequently, towing resistance depends on the thermal budget of the sled. For example, black fuel bladders increase solar gain and thus decrease sled resistance; data suggest they could double again the fuel delivered per tractor. The outstanding efficiency and low cost of these sleds has transformed fuel delivery to Polar research stations.