29 Jan 2021

Hydrologic Impacts on Human Health: El Niño Southern Oscillation and Cholera

Abstract: A non-stationary climate imposes considerable challenges regarding potential public health concerns. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which occurs every 2 to 7 years, correlates positively with occurrences of the waterborne disease cholera. The warm sea surface temperatures and extreme weather associated with ENSO create optimal conditions for breeding the Vibrio cholerae pathogen and for human exposure to the pathogenic waters. This work explored the impacts of ENSO on cholera occurrence rates over the past 50 years by examining annual rates of suspected cholera cases per country in relation to ENSO Index values. This study provides a relationship indicating when hydrologic conditions are optimal for cholera growth, and presents a statistical approach to answer three questions: Are cholera outbreaks more likely to occur in an El Niño year? What other factors impact cholera outbreaks? How will the future climate impact cholera incidence rates as it relates to conditions found in ENSO? Cholera outbreaks from the 1960s to the present are examined focusing on regions of Central and South America, and southern Asia. By examining the predictive relationship between climate variability and cholera, we can draw conclusions about future vulnerability to cholera and other waterborne pathogenic diseases.

10 Jun 2020

PUBLICATION NOTICE: Projecting Changes in Food Security Throughout Central America

Abstract: Climate non-stationarity continues to change the productivity of local food and water supply. These changes in supplies could result in starvation or surpluses, greatly affecting the surrounding populations and causing adverse effects such as malnutrition, mass migration, and political unrest. This study addresses the following questions regarding the future potential of land resources to support local populations with food and water: How will crop production be affected by changing environmental conditions? Which specific regions are expected to experience the greatest pressure? How might we expect land use to shift through the end of the 21st century, based on future environmental conditions? Current crop growth is analyzed, along with projected crop growth based on future climate scenarios. Recent historic anthropogenic biome maps are statistically correlated with recent historic climate data to generate models and are applied to anticipated future climates to generate future anthrome maps. The crop analysis is then coupled with the anthromes results, yielding a crop suitability forecast. This analysis is constrained to the area of Central America over the course of the 21st century for this study.