7 Jan 2025

Applying the Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) Framework: Meramec Case Study

Abstract: This technical report explores ecosystem goods and services (EGS) assessment to support US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) decision-making by applying the recently published proposed EGS framework (Wainger et al. 2020) to a case study. A joint effort of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and USACE, the Meramec River Basin Ecosystem Restoration Feasibility Study provides an opportunity to investigate the practicality of EGS analysis and how it might determine complementarity or antagonism among study partner goals. The EPA seeks primarily to protect human health, while USACE aims to restore aquatic ecosystems. Subjected to elevated heavy metals from upstream mining, altered hydrology, and other degrading factors, the river system nevertheless supports high aquatic biodiversity and numerous rare species. The project team developed an EGS conceptual model to document the potential ecological features and processes changes, ecological outcomes, and social benefits or harms of proposed management actions. Nonmonetary EGS benefit indicators illustrated concordance of the project goals with national restoration priorities. Overall, this initial analysis indicates that EGS analysis is feasible with the types of models and data available for the project, promotes explicit analysis of synergies and conflicts, and helps communicate effects and trade-offs during planning.

7 Jan 2025

Incorporating Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) into US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Project Planning: A Retrospective Analysis

Abstract: Ecosystem goods and services (EGS) have been promoted as a way to effectively examine trade-offs and improve communication of project-related environmental outcomes in terms of human well-being. Notably, EGS provide a construct that seems capable of enhancing the capacity to communicate with stakeholders about how ecosystem restoration and rehabilitation activities can affect them—and in ways that are more meaningful to the public than the habitat metrics currently employed. The concept of EGS is not new to the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Civil Works Program. This document presents a review of past attempts to apply EGS assessment techniques in the context of USACE project planning and then identifies obstacles met in those efforts that could be avoided in the future. This report is not intended to showcase approaches to consider EGS in planning studies. Rather, this paper uses case studies to illustrate the challenges of considering ecosystem services in the context of planning studies. These challenges will need to be addressed in any future applications of EGS assessments to USACE Civil Works Program decision-making.

6 Nov 2024

Time-Series Forecasting Methods: A Review

Abstract: Time-series forecasting techniques are of fundamental importance for predicting future values by analyzing past trends. The techniques assume that future trends will be similar to historical trends. Forecasting involves using models fit on historical data to predict future values. Time-series models have wide-ranging applications, from weather forecasting to sales forecasting, and are among the most effective methods of forecasting, especially when making decisions that involve uncertainty about the future. To evaluate forecast accuracy and to compare among models fitted to a time series, three performance measures were used in this study: mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and root-mean-square error (RMSE).

16 Sep 2024

Toward Systemic Beneficial use of Dredged Sediments in San Pablo Bay: Demonstration of a Proposed Framework for Matching Sediment Needs with Dredging Requirements

Abstract: Coastal wetlands provide a suite of valuable ecosystem services, but they are rapidly disappearing due to reductions in sediment supply and rising sea levels, making them ideal candidates for restoration through beneficial use of dredged sediment. Because sediment dredged from navigation channels is a limited resource relative to the number of degraded wetlands, a framework has been developed to align coastal restoration sediment needs with dredging requirements to maximize social, environmental, and flood risk reduction benefits while also completing the navigation mission. The framework is comprised of four key steps: (1) geographic scoping and suitability considerations, (2) quantification of the dredged sediment available and restoration project sediment needs, (3) definition of cost and benefit objectives, and (4) optimization of costs and benefits to determine the most efficient solutions. This report is a demonstration of this framework on a subset of wetland sites and local federal navigation channels in San Pablo Bay, California.

26 Mar 2024

Risk-Based Prioritization of Operational Condition Assessments: Trinity River and Willamette River Case Studies

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and man-ages over 700 dams and 4,000 miles of levees, providing approximately $257 billion worth of economic benefit to the Nation. USACE employs the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) process to understand the condition of those assets and allocate resources to minimize risk associated with performance degradation. Understanding risk in flood risk management (FRM) assets requires an understanding of consequence of asset failure from a systemwide FRM watershed perspective and an understanding of likelihood of degradation based on the condition of the low-level components derived from OCA ratings. This research demonstrates a case-study application of a scalable methodology to model the likelihood of a dam performing as expected given the state of its gates and their components. The research team combines this likelihood of degradation with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop risk measures. These risk measures can be developed for all FRM gate assets in order to enable traceable, consistent resource allocation decisions. Two case study applications are provided.

5 Sep 2023

Resilience Modeling for Civil Military Operations with the Framework Incorporating Complex Uncertainty Systems

Abstract: Framework Incorporating Complex Uncertain Systems (FICUS) provides geographic risk analysis capabilities that will dramatically improve military intelligence in locations with the Engineer Research and Development’s (ERDC) demographic and infrastructure models built and calibrated. When completed, FICUS would improve intelligence products by incorporating existing tools from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, ERDC, and FICUS prototype models, even in places without demographic or infrastructure capabilities. FICUS would support higher-fidelity intelligence analysis of population, environmental, and infrastructure interaction in areas with Human Infrastructure System Assessment (HISA) and urban security models built and calibrated. This technical report will demonstrate FICUS prototype tools that allow Civil Affairs Soldiers to provide situational awareness information via a browser interface.

30 Nov 2022

Risk-Based Prioritization of Operational Condition Assessments: Methodology and Case Study Results

Abstract: USACE operates, maintains, and manages more than $232 billion of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. USACE uses the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) to allocate limited resources to assess condition of this infrastructure in efforts to minimize risks associated with performance degradation. The analysis of risk associated with flood risk management (FRM) assets includes consideration of how each asset contributes to its associated FRM watershed system, understanding the consequences of the asset’s performance degradation, and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA condition ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates a proof-of-concept application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its gates and their components. The team combines this likelihood of degradation with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a risk measure. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for a mixed-integer optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. This report documents the results of the application of this methodology to two case studies.

6 Oct 2022

Incorporating Social and Environmental Outputs in Decision-Making: Workshop Outcomes

PURPOSE: This document summarizes the notable outcomes of the workshop “Quantifying and Incorporating Social and Environmental Outputs in Decision-Making—Research and Development Needs and Strategy Workshop.” The workshop was held 24 and 25 July 2019 in Alexandria, Virginia, at the US Army Corps of Engineers’ (USACE) Institute for Water Resources (IWR). The workshop sought to identify gaps in knowledge, methods, data, and tools and to identify types of subject matter experts who would be needed for the research team. A total of 22 participants attended the facilitated workshop, representing a broad array of expertise: economists, scientists, planners, social scientists, project managers, and researchers from a number of USACE organizations and partnering academics across the United States. Together, these attendees reviewed existing policy and research and prioritized future work to fill gaps in methods and procedures for incorporating social and environmental inputs across a broad range of USACE projects.

15 Sep 2022

Informing the Community Engagement Framework for Natural and Nature-based Projects: An Annotated Review of Leading Stakeholder and Community Engagement Practices

Abstract: In its infrastructure development work, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) engages and collaborates with numerous local, state, and national stakeholders. Projects incorporating innovative approaches, such as beneficial use (BU) of dredged materials and other natural and nature-based features (NNBF), are often not well-understood by stakeholders, including those at the community level. This often results in conflicts and project delays. By sponsoring the development of a Community Engagement Framework, the Dredging Operations and Environmental Research (DOER) program hopes to systematically improve how project teams design, conduct, and measure effective community engagement on infrastructure projects. The purpose of this focused Review was to assesses leading stakeholder and community engagement practices that reflect the state of practice of stakeholder engagement within USACE, and by other leading organizations in the US and internationally, to inform development of the Community Engagement Framework. While the resulting Framework will be particularly well-suited for community engagement on projects incorporating BU and other NNBF, it will be applicable to a broad range of USACE Civil Works’ initiatives where effective stakeholder engagement is critical to project success. The assessment showed the practice of stakeholder engagement has evolved significantly over the past 30 years, with much more focus today on ensuring that engagement processes are purposeful, meaningful, collaborative, and inclusive - reflecting stakeholders’ desire to participate in co-creating sustainable solutions that produce environmental, economic, and social benefits. This, and other key findings, are informing development of the Community Engagement Framework which is scalable and adaptable to a broad range of projects across the USACE missions.

4 Apr 2022

Risk-Based Prioritization of Operational Condition Assessments: Jennings Randolph Case Study

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and manages over $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. Using Operational Condition Assessments (OCA), the USACE allocates limited resources to assess asset condition in efforts to minimize risks associated with asset performance degradation, but decision makers require a greater understanding of those risks. The analysis of risk associated with Flood Risk Management assets in the context of its associated watershed system includes understanding the consequences of the asset’s failure and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates an application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its subordinate gates and their components. The research team combines this likelihood with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a measure of risk. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for an optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. Proof-of-concept results for an initial case study on the Jennings Randolph Dam are provided.