26 Mar 2024

Risk-Based Prioritization of Operational Condition Assessments: Trinity River and Willamette River Case Studies

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and man-ages over 700 dams and 4,000 miles of levees, providing approximately $257 billion worth of economic benefit to the Nation. USACE employs the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) process to understand the condition of those assets and allocate resources to minimize risk associated with performance degradation. Understanding risk in flood risk management (FRM) assets requires an understanding of consequence of asset failure from a systemwide FRM watershed perspective and an understanding of likelihood of degradation based on the condition of the low-level components derived from OCA ratings. This research demonstrates a case-study application of a scalable methodology to model the likelihood of a dam performing as expected given the state of its gates and their components. The research team combines this likelihood of degradation with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop risk measures. These risk measures can be developed for all FRM gate assets in order to enable traceable, consistent resource allocation decisions. Two case study applications are provided.

5 Sep 2023

Resilience Modeling for Civil Military Operations with the Framework Incorporating Complex Uncertainty Systems

Abstract: Framework Incorporating Complex Uncertain Systems (FICUS) provides geographic risk analysis capabilities that will dramatically improve military intelligence in locations with the Engineer Research and Development’s (ERDC) demographic and infrastructure models built and calibrated. When completed, FICUS would improve intelligence products by incorporating existing tools from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, ERDC, and FICUS prototype models, even in places without demographic or infrastructure capabilities. FICUS would support higher-fidelity intelligence analysis of population, environmental, and infrastructure interaction in areas with Human Infrastructure System Assessment (HISA) and urban security models built and calibrated. This technical report will demonstrate FICUS prototype tools that allow Civil Affairs Soldiers to provide situational awareness information via a browser interface.

8 Dec 2022

Coastal Hazards System–Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands (CHS-PR)

Abstract: The South Atlantic Coastal Study (SACS) was completed by the US Army Corps of Engineers to quantify storm surge and wave hazards allowing for the expansion of the Coastal Hazards System (CHS) to the South Atlantic Division (SAD) domain. The goal of the CHS-SACS was to quantify coastal storm hazards for present conditions and future sea level rise (SLR) scenarios to aid in reducing flooding risk and increasing resiliency in coastal environments. CHS-SACS was completed for three regions within the SAD domain, and this report focuses on the Coastal Hazards System–Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands (CHS-PR). This study applied the CHS Probabilistic Coastal Hazard Analysis (PCHA) framework for quantifying tropical cyclone (TC) responses, leveraging new atmospheric and hydrodynamic numerical model simulations of synthetic TCs developed explicitly for the CHS-PR region. This report focuses on documenting the PCHA conducted for CHS-PR, including the characterization of storm climate, storm sampling, storm recurrence rate estimation, marginal distributions, correlation and dependence structure of TC atmospheric-forcing parameters, development of augmented storm suites, and assignment of discrete storm weights to the synthetic TCs. As part of CHS-PR, coastal hazards were estimated for annual exceedance frequencies over the range of 10 yr⁻¹ to 10⁻⁴ yr⁻¹.

30 Nov 2022

Risk-Based Prioritization of Operational Condition Assessments: Methodology and Case Study Results

Abstract: USACE operates, maintains, and manages more than $232 billion of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. USACE uses the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) to allocate limited resources to assess condition of this infrastructure in efforts to minimize risks associated with performance degradation. The analysis of risk associated with flood risk management (FRM) assets includes consideration of how each asset contributes to its associated FRM watershed system, understanding the consequences of the asset’s performance degradation, and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA condition ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates a proof-of-concept application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its gates and their components. The team combines this likelihood of degradation with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a risk measure. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for a mixed-integer optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. This report documents the results of the application of this methodology to two case studies.

31 Aug 2022

Coastal Hazards System–Louisiana (CHS-LA)

Abstract: The US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL) expanded the Coastal Hazards System (CHS) to quantify storm surge and wave hazards for coastal Louisiana. The CHS Louisiana (CHS-LA) coastal study was sponsored by the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) and the New Orleans District (MVN), US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to support Louisiana’s critical coastal infrastructure and to ensure the effectiveness of coastal storm risk management projects. The CHS-LA applied the CHS Probabilistic Coastal Hazard Analysis (PCHA) framework to quantify tropical cyclone (TC) responses, leveraging new atmospheric and hydrodynamic numerical model simulations of synthetic TCs developed explicitly for the Louisiana region. This report focuses on documenting the PCHA conducted for the CHS-LA, including details related to the characterization of storm climate, storm sampling, storm recurrence rate estimation, marginal distributions, correlation and dependence structure of TC atmospheric-forcing parameters, development of augmented storm suites, and assignment of discrete storm weights to the synthetic TCs. As part of CHS-LA, coastal hazards were estimated within the study area for annual exceedance frequencies (AEFs) over the range of 10 yr-1 to 1×10-4 yr-1.

4 Apr 2022

Risk-Based Prioritization of Operational Condition Assessments: Jennings Randolph Case Study

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and manages over $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. Using Operational Condition Assessments (OCA), the USACE allocates limited resources to assess asset condition in efforts to minimize risks associated with asset performance degradation, but decision makers require a greater understanding of those risks. The analysis of risk associated with Flood Risk Management assets in the context of its associated watershed system includes understanding the consequences of the asset’s failure and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates an application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its subordinate gates and their components. The research team combines this likelihood with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a measure of risk. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for an optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. Proof-of-concept results for an initial case study on the Jennings Randolph Dam are provided.

30 Jul 2021

A Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Synthetic Biology Products in the Environment

Abstract: The need to prevent possible adverse environmental health impacts resulting from synthetic biology (SynBio) products is widely acknowledged in both the SynBio risk literature and the global regulatory community. However, discussions of potential risks of SynBio products have been largely speculative, and the attempts to characterize the risks of SynBio products have been non-uniform and entirely qualitative. As the discipline continues to accelerate, a standardized risk assessment framework will become critical for ensuring that the environmental risks of these products are characterized in a consistent, reliable, and objective manner that incorporates all SynBio-unique risk factors. Current established risk assessment frameworks fall short of the features required of this standard framework. To address this, we propose the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Synthetic Biology Products (QRA-SynBio) – an incremental build on established risk assessment methodologies that supplements traditional paradigms with the SynBio risk factors that are currently absent and necessitates quantitative analysis for more transparent and objective risk characterizations. The proposed framework facilitates defensible quantification of the environmental risks of SynBio products in both foreseeable and hypothetical use scenarios. Additionally, we show how the proposed method can promote increased experimental investigation into the likelihood of hazard and exposure parameters and highlight the parameters where uncertainty should be reduced, leading to more targeted risk research and more precise characterizations of risk.

10 May 2021

Risk-Based Prioritization of Operational Condition Assessments: Stakeholder Analysis and Literature Review

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and manages more than $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. Using the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) system, the USACE allocates limited resources to assess conditions and maintain assets in efforts to minimize risks associated with asset performance degradation. Currently, OCAs are conducted on each component within a facility every 5 years, regardless of the component’s risk contribution. The analysis of risks associated with Flood Risk Management (FRM) facilities, such as dams, includes considering how the facility contributes to its associated FRM watershed system, understanding the consequences of degradation in the facility’s performance, and calculating the likelihood that the facility will perform as expected given the current OCA condition ratings of critical components. This research will develop a scalable methodology to model the probability of failure of components and systems that contribute to the performance of facilities in their respective FRM systems combined with consequences derived from hydrological models of the watershed to develop facility risk scores. This interim report documents the results of the first phase of this effort, stakeholder analysis and literature review, to identify candidate approaches to determine the probability of failure of a facility.

4 May 2021

Investigating the USACE Operational Condition Assessment Process Current and Future

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers operates, maintains, and manages more than $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure and relies on the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) process to determine the condition of the assets and their components. The sheer number of components, all of equal OCA scheduling priority, creates challenges in ensuring that assessments are conducted in a timely manner and that data generated are of sufficient quality to inform resource allocation decisions. This research applied methods from systems design to determine the OCA system “as-is” state and create a stakeholder-informed vision of a “to-be” state that addresses current system challenges. To meet its objective of providing current assessments of asset condition, the OCA system must provide four high-level functions: provide access to asset data, conduct assessments, determine asset risk, and prioritize and schedule assessments. The development of capabilities to provide these functions will facilitate the achievement of the OCA system to-be vision: a consistent view of asset condition and risk across the enterprise.

7 Apr 2020

PUBLICATION NOTICE: Using the Social Vulnerability Index to Forecast Disaster Migration

 Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/35433Report Number: ERDC/CERL TR-19-20Title: Using the Social Vulnerability Index to Forecast Disaster MigrationBy Chandler M. Armstrong and Lance L. LarkinApproved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited September 2019Abstract: This report analyzes disaster-driven internal migration, its effects on