7 May 2026

An All-Hazards Return on Investment (ROI) Model to Evaluate U.S. Army Installation Resilient Strategies

Abstract: The paper describes our project to develop, verify, and deploy an All-Hazards Return of Investment (ROI) model for the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) to provide army installations with a decision support tool for evaluating strategies to make existing installation facilities more resilient. The need for increased resilience to extreme weather caused by climate change was required by U.S. code and DoD guidance, as well as an army strategic plan that stipulated an ROI model to evaluate relevant resilient strategies. During the project, the ERDC integrated the University of Arkansas designed model into a new army installation planning tool and expanded the scope to evaluate resilient options from climate to all hazards. Our methodology included research on policy, data sources, resilient options, and analytical techniques, along with stakeholder interviews and weekly meetings with installation planning tool developers. The ROI model uses standard risk analysis and engineering economics terms and analyzes potential installation hazards and resilient strategies using data in the installation planning tool. The ROI model calculates the expected net present cost without the resilient strategy, the expected net present cost with the resilient strategy, and ROI for each resilient strategy. The minimum viable product ROI model was formulated mathematically, coded in Python, verified using hazard scenarios, and provided to the ERDC for implementation.

22 Apr 2026

An Interdisciplinary Overview of Levee Setback Benefits: Supporting Spatial Planning and Implementation of Riverine Nature-Based Solutions

Abstract: Nature-based solutions are increasingly recognized as multi-benefit strategies for addressing the critical sustainability challenges of the Anthropocene, including the climate emergency and biodiversity crisis. Mainstreaming NbS in professional practice requires strategic, landscape-level planning integrating multiple sources of benefits and their synergies and trade-offs. Levee setbacks (LS) are among the best-studied riverine NbS with recognized benefits for flood risk management, drought resilience, water quality management, recreational opportunities, and ecological restoration for biodiversity. Although awareness of the multifarious benefits of LS as forms of Natural Capital is growing, implementation remains ad-hoc and opportunistic. To address this critical implementation gap for one major example of NbS, we review and synthesize literature across diverse disciplines to provide an overview of the primary social, economic, and ecological mechanisms that affect the co-benefit delivery of LS projects. Next, to make this information relevant to NbS practitioners, we link these mechanisms to spatial metrics that can be used to approximate the relative magnitude of project benefits and costs across these mechanisms. Finally, we highlight examples of key synergies and trade-offs among benefits that should be considered for LS planning. This synthetic approach is intended to familiarize readers with the diverse potential benefits of LS, and provide an understanding of how to select and prioritize potential sites for further study and implementation. Synergies and trade-offs among important benefit drivers abound, and social equity concerns will be paramount in ensuring the successful implementation of LS and other NbS in the future.

19 Sep 2025

Cooling Perspectives on the Risk of Pathogenic Viruses from Thawing Permafrost

Abstract: Climate change is inducing wide-scale permafrost thaw in the Arctic and subarctic, triggering concerns that long-dormant pathogens could reemerge from the thawing ground and initiate epidemics or pandemics. Viruses, as opposed to bacterial pathogens, garner particular interest because outbreaks cannot be controlled with antibiotics, though the effects can be mitigated by vaccines and newer antiviral drugs. To evaluate the potential hazards posed by viral pathogens emerging from thawing permafrost, we review information from a diverse range of disciplines. This includes efforts to recover infectious virus from human remains, studies on disease occurrence in polar animal populations, investigations into viral persistence and infectivity in permafrost, and assessments of human exposure to the enormous viral diversity present in the environment. Based on currently available knowledge, we conclude that the risk posed by viruses from thawing permafrost is no greater than viruses in other environ¬ments such as temperate soils and aquatic systems.

9 May 2025

An All-Hazards Return on Investment (ROI) Model to Evaluate U.S. Army Installation Resilient Strategies

Abstract: The paper describes our project to develop, verify, and deploy an All-Hazards Return of Investment model for the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center to provide army installations with a decision support tool for evaluating strategies to make existing installation facilities more resilient. The need for increased resilience to extreme weather was required by U.S. code and DoD guidance, as well as an army strategic plan stipulating an ROI model to evaluate relevant resilient strategies. The ERDC integrated the University of Arkansas designed model into a new army installation planning tool and expanded the scope to evaluate resilient options from climate to all hazards. Our methodology included research on policy, data sources, resilient options, and analytical techniques, along with stakeholder interviews and weekly meetings with installation planning tool developers. The ROI model uses standard risk analysis and engineering economics terms and analyzes potential installation hazards and resilient strategies using data in the installation planning tool. The model calculates the expected net present cost without the resilient strategy, with the resilient strategy, and ROI for each. The minimum viable product ROI model was formulated mathematically, coded in Python, verified using hazard scenarios, and provided to the ERDC for implementation.

20 Mar 2024

Balancing Climate Resilience and Adaptation for Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Building Institutional Capacity

Abstract: Although the Caribbean's Small Island Developing States (SIDS) minimally contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions, they face disproportionate climate risks and are particularly susceptible to systemic economic threats posed by climate change and subsequent increases in climate variability. Historically, strategic programs and investments have sought to develop more robust and adaptive engineered systems to absorb climate threats. However, such initiatives are limited and under-resourced in the SIDS’ context. This article reviews existing climate strategies in the Caribbean and then critically examines current gaps and barriers relating to climate impact knowledge, needs, and implementation. This examination can assist Caribbean SIDS leadership to identify opportunities to transition from a vulnerability-reducing mindset to one of resilience and transformative adaptation to improve long-term economic outlooks, social welfare, and environmental stewardship despite recurring and escalating climate risks.

15 Dec 2023

Challenges and Limitations of Using Autonomous Instrumentation for Measuring In Situ Soil Respiration in a Subarctic Boreal Forest in Alaska, USA

Abstract: Subarctic and Arctic environments are sensitive to warming temperatures due to climate change. As soils warm, soil microorganisms break down carbon and release greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Recent studies examining CO2 efflux note heterogeneity of microbial activity across the landscape. To better understand carbon dynamics, our team developed a predictive model, Dynamic Representation of Terrestrial Soil Predictions of Organisms’ Response to the Environment (DRTSPORE), to estimate CO2 efflux based on soil temperature and moisture estimates. The goal of this work was to acquire respiration rates from a boreal forest located near the town of Fairbanks, Alaska, and to provide in situ measurements for the future validation effort of the DRTSPORE model estimates of CO2 efflux in cold climates. Results show that soil temperature and seasonal soil thaw depth had the greatest impact on soil respiration. However, the instrumentation deployed significantly altered the soil temperature, moisture, and seasonal thaw depth at the survey site and very likely the soil respiration rates. These findings are important to better understand the challenges and limitations associated with the in situ data collection used for carbon efflux modeling and for estimating soil microbial activity in cold environments.