5 May 2026

Permafrost and Rain Influence Summer Hydrologic Flowpaths in Boreal Catchments

Abstract: Flowpaths of water through catchments influence water quality and flow regimes of streams. Depths of dominant flowpaths respond to variation in climate and catchment characteristics, such as topography, vegetation, and soil type. In high‐latitude regions, the depth and spatial extent of permafrost influences catchment hydrology, and thawing permafrost might change sources and pathways of water supplying solutes and flow to streams. We estimated contributions of precipitation, soil water, and groundwater flowpaths to streams during the open‐water period after snowmelt by applying a Bayesian mixing model to 4–6 years of observed solute concentrations in five catchments of boreal Alaska. The relative contribution of groundwater to streams varied from 12% to 82% across catchments and years and declined as spatial extent of permafrost increased from 25% to 58% across catchments, indicating potential for increased infiltration and drainage as permafrost thaws. Temporal patterns in precipitation also influenced flowpaths. The mean annual contribution of precipitation to streamflow increased in years with more rain. Groundwater contribution increased, on average, in years with few large storms, suggesting deepening flows due to seasonal ground thaw or loss of shallow water to evapotranspiration. In contrast, groundwater contributed less in years when large storms delivered most of the year's rain in late summer or autumn. Overall, spatial and temporal variation in relative flowpath contributions to streams suggest that permafrost thaw will deepen flowpaths, but increasing precipitation expected in high‐latitude regions under warming climate might obscure this effect by routing water via shallow flowpaths following large storms.