8 Dec 2025

Modeling Tools for Proactive Ecosystem Restoration and Assisted Migration Planning: A State of the Science Review and Synthesis

Abstract: Decision-support modeling tools are needed to help aquatic ecosystem restoration (AER) planners understand how habitat footprints and species distributions will change in response to future changing conditions. Specifically, environmental projections and predictive model outputs that inform proactive AER planning and investments. This report provides a literature synthesis of resources and tools to create such a decision support tool. Select models identified were evaluated for applicability to AER planning using prediction confidence, user-friendliness, and suitability. This uncovered several existing, primarily terrestrially, predictive models that could be adapted to inform proactive AER planning efforts. Research efforts are still needed to fill gaps for aquatic data to train and validate predictive models, refine key drivers, and build and pilot aquatic-focused tools. Future condition vulnerability screening tools could be used to identify which proposed AER project sites are best suited for proactive AER measures, such as assisted migration, and determine if investments in more rigorous, spatially explicit, or species-specific models are needed. Species-specific assessments of habitat suitability changes and adaptive capacity can then inform restoration targets and enable end-users to achieve AER planning objectives. Such a decision support tool would improve planner ability to restore key aquatic habitats resilient to future conditions.