1 Oct 2025

Numerical Storm Surge Modeling and Probabilistic Analysis for Evaluating Proposed New Jersey Back Bays Inlet Closures

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers, Philadelphia District, and the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection are currently engaged in the New Jersey Back Bays (NJBB) Coastal Storm Risk Management Feasibility Study. The US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, conducted a numerical hydrodynamic modeling and probabilistic hazard analysis study to evaluate the effectiveness of storm surge barriers in reducing water levels in the NJBB. The numerical modeling study included the simulation of water levels and a comparison of water surface elevations and corresponding annual exceedance frequency between existing conditions and six final project alternatives. Results from the hydrodynamic simulations and probabilistic analysis are presented herein.