29 Sep 2025

State of Practice and Recommendations to Enhance Probability of Failure Estimates for Civil Works Infrastructure Components

Abstract: As the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) continues to improve its asset management system, it is imperative that maintenance investments across its wide infrastructure portfolio are maximizing risk reduction. A key component of risk is probability of failure. Presently, USACE estimates probability of failure for asset components in a variety of ways across business lines, activities, and decision spaces. This document explores the variations in the state of practice for probability of failure estimates across USACE and contrasts them with available best practices and methodologies. The review found several key gaps between the state of practice and best practices, including a lack of component failure and life data useful for time-to-failure parameter estimates, a lack of codified definitions of failure, no clear and consistent guidance for probability of failure estimates across business lines or decision spaces, and no methodologies that account for environmental variation at a facility. These gaps are addressed by a research strategy that compares and contrasts several probability of failure calculation methods using presently available data, identifies relevant life data for future collection, and defines a framework for investing in improved probability of failure assessments at facilities.