28 Jul 2025

Predicting Frozen Ground and Thaw Risk from Standard Land Model Output: Data, Algorithms, and GeoWATCH Implementation

Abstract: The Geospatial Weather Affected Terrain Conditions and Hazards (GeoWATCH) tool provides real-time mobility predictions at 30 m resolution on demand for any location on the globe. This tool combines dynamic weather data provided by the Air Force 557 Weather Wing (557WW) with static terrain data to downscale soil moisture from global and regional scales to resolutions better suited for terrain analysis applications. Frozen and thawing ground data layers were recently incorporated into the GeoWATCH framework to better support terrain assessment for Warfighter functions in cold regions. This report documents our approach for diagnosing the frozen and thawing ground data layers and provides examples. First, using data from controlled land-surface model simulations, we established simple curve-fitting formulas relating soil temperature to frozen water content. We then added the new formulas to the GeoWATCH code so that end users can generate frozen soil products on demand. Finally, GeoWATCH uses the resultant frozen soil product with a series of soil layers to determine the risk of actively thawing soil and springtime mud conditions. While the new overlays are not integrated into the GeoWATCH mobility diagnostic calculations, they provide insight into soil state conditions critical for operations and weather-based risk assessment in cold regions.