16 Jun 2025

Enhancing Resilience: Integrating Future Flood Modeling and Socio-Economic Analysis in the Face of Climate Change Impacts

Abstract: As climate change intensifies, floods will become more severe in some areas with geographic variation, necessitating governments implementing systems providing information for climate adaptation. We aimed to develop a methodology identifying areas at an increased risk. In this study, 100-year recurrence interval flood extents and depths were estimated using an ensemble of six independent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models for a past and future period under the highest-emissions climate scenario. The flood inundation results were related to social vulnerability for two study areas in the Mississippi River Basin. To identify at-risk areas, the relationship between the spatial distribution of flood depths and vulnerability was assessed. Finally, an analysis of current and future damages on infrastructure from flooding on residential housing to determine whether damages correlated with higher vulnerability areas. Results show flood extents and depths are increasing in the future, ranging from an increase of 6 to 76 km2 in extent. A statistically significant relationship between spatial clusters of flooding and of vulnerability was found. Overall, a framework was established to holistically understand the hydrologic and socioeconomic impacts of climate change, and a methodology was developed for allocating resources at the local scale.