9 May 2025

An All-Hazards Return on Investment (ROI) Model to Evaluate U.S. Army Installation Resilient Strategies

Abstract: The paper describes our project to develop, verify, and deploy an All-Hazards Return of Investment model for the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center to provide army installations with a decision support tool for evaluating strategies to make existing installation facilities more resilient. The need for increased resilience to extreme weather was required by U.S. code and DoD guidance, as well as an army strategic plan stipulating an ROI model to evaluate relevant resilient strategies. The ERDC integrated the University of Arkansas designed model into a new army installation planning tool and expanded the scope to evaluate resilient options from climate to all hazards. Our methodology included research on policy, data sources, resilient options, and analytical techniques, along with stakeholder interviews and weekly meetings with installation planning tool developers. The ROI model uses standard risk analysis and engineering economics terms and analyzes potential installation hazards and resilient strategies using data in the installation planning tool. The model calculates the expected net present cost without the resilient strategy, with the resilient strategy, and ROI for each. The minimum viable product ROI model was formulated mathematically, coded in Python, verified using hazard scenarios, and provided to the ERDC for implementation.