28 Aug 2024

Integrating NOAA’s National Water Model (NWM) into the Antecedent Precipitation Tool (APT) to Support Clean Water Act Decision-Making

Abstract: This study examines the effectiveness of the National Water Model (NWM) in assessing streamflow normalcy under the Clean Water Act, compared to the commonly used Antecedent Precipitation Tool (APT). The APT, used by the Environmental Protection Agency, US Army Corps of Engineers, and environmental consultants, evaluates waterbody conditions based on precipitation data. However, it was found to be less accurate in predicting streamflow normalcy compared to USGS gage data. The NWM, on the other hand, showed promising results in preliminary analyses, outperforming the APT when compared to USGS gage records. This research expands on these initial findings, evaluating the NWM’s performance across the contiguous United States (CONUS) at gage locations indexed to the NHDPlus Version 2.1 stream network. The results suggest that the NWM provides adequate performance for assessing streamflow normalcy where USGS gages are not present, with accuracy ranging from 40% to 60% in the western half of CONUS and 60% to 80% in the eastern half.