11 Jul 2024

Mississippi River AdH Model Modification and Evaluation, Thebes, Illinois, to Birds Point, Missouri, Reach

Abstract: A calibrated hydrodynamic and sediment transport model of the Upper Mississippi River, from Thebes, Illinois, to Birds Point, Missouri, was created to investigate hydraulics and sediment transport in the river channel and across the Dogtooth Island Peninsula (DIP) as the result of the Len Small levee breach. A hydrodynamic model was developed for the reach and calibrated to stage and breach outflow discharge data for the floods of 2011, 2015–2016, and 2017. The hydrodynamic model was used to investigate breach outflow discharges and shear stress distribution over the DIP. Soil and geologic maps were investigated to determine soil parameters and the long-term stability of soil formations on the DIP. The Upper Mississippi River sediment transport model was built upon the hydrodynamic model and soil mapping efforts. The sediment transport model was calibrated to the 2015 and 2017 flood events. Calibration data were limited to changes in elevation, which were then areally averaged, computed from comprehensive channel surveys and lidar data for the DIP. This model provides a solid foundation for comparing alternative measures to minimize further erosion of the DIP and for analyzing the risk of a channel cutoff occurring.