28 May 2024

Statistical Analysis of Storm Surge and Seiche Hazards for Lake Erie

Abstract: Storm surge and seiche events are generally forced by severe storms, initially resulting in a wind-driven super elevation of water level on one or more sides of a lake (surge) followed by a rebound and periodic oscillation of water levels between opposing sides of the lake (seiche). These events have caused flooding along Lake Erie and significant damages to coastal communities and infrastructure. This study builds upon statistical analysis methods initially developed for the 2012 federal interagency Great Lakes Coastal Flood Study. Using the Coastal Hazards System's stochastic Storm Simulation (StormSim) suite of tools, including the Probabilistic Simulation Technique (PST), and regional frequency model, historical extreme events were assessed in a local frequency analysis and a regional frequency analysis to quantify the annual exceedance frequency (AEF) of WLD events specific to Lake Erie. The objective of this study was to quantify AEFs of storm surge and seiche hazards to provide a better understanding of these events to aid flood mitigation and risk reduction for lakeside properties.