6 Nov 2024

Time-Series Forecasting Methods: A Review

Abstract: Time-series forecasting techniques are of fundamental importance for predicting future values by analyzing past trends. The techniques assume that future trends will be similar to historical trends. Forecasting involves using models fit on historical data to predict future values. Time-series models have wide-ranging applications, from weather forecasting to sales forecasting, and are among the most effective methods of forecasting, especially when making decisions that involve uncertainty about the future. To evaluate forecast accuracy and to compare among models fitted to a time series, three performance measures were used in this study: mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and root-mean-square error (RMSE).

15 Sep 2023

Real-Time Forecasting Model Development Work Plan

Abstract: The objective of the Lowermost Mississippi River Management Program is to move the nation toward more holistic management of the lower reaches of the Mississippi River through the development and use of a science-based decision-making framework. There has been substantial investment in the last decade to develop multidimensional numerical models to evaluate the Lowermost Mississippi River (LMMR) hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and salinity dynamics. The focus of this work plan is to leverage the existing scientific knowledge and models to improve holistic management of the LMMR. Specifically, this work plan proposes the development of a real-time forecasting (RTF) system for water, sediment, and selected nutrients in the LMMR. The RTF system will help inform and guide the decision-making process for operating flood-control and sediment-diversion structures. This work plan describes the primary components of the RTF system and their interactions. The work plan includes descriptions of the existing tools and numerical models that could be leveraged to develop this system together with a brief inventory of existing real-time data that could be used to validate the RTF system. A description of the tasks that would be required to develop and set up the RTF system is included together with an associated timeline.