24 May 2023

Analysis of Paxton Siphon Frazil Ice Blockage Event during January 2022

Abstract: In early January 2022, the Paxton Siphon, owned and operated by the Nebraska Public Power District, filled with frazil ice creating a blockage that resulted in a rapid upstream stage rise for the Sutherland Canal. An event of this type has never happened in the over 80 years of operating the Paxton Siphon. An analysis of the available weather and canal data suggests a rapid air temperature change resulted in the water becoming supercooled, which combined with the moderately low flows in the canal resulted in an anomalous frazil ice formation event. To address this issue for future cold weather events, a water temperature model was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System and can be used to determine the spatial extents of the supercooling event using forecasted weather information. In addition, we developed a heat-exchange forecast tool that can be used operationally to screen for potential frazil ice formation periods with a 1-week outlook period.