29 Sep 2025

Asset Condition and Probability of Failure Assessment–A Vision for Civil Works: A Document to Guide Collaboration and Innovation for the US Army Corps of Engineers Civil Works Asset Management System

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is rapidly improving its asset management system through a variety of research projects and other work efforts that focus on how risk, condition, and probability of failure are conceived, communicated, and used for decision-making across the agency. As these projects move forward, it is critical that USACE defines a long-term vision for condition and probability of failure assessments across the entire asset management system. This Special Report defines that vision with the goal of achieving consensus and buy-in from a variety of participants that will need to buy-in to achieve success. An additional benefit to identifying an end vision for this work is to identify collaborative opportunities and any gaps that must be addressed to achieve it.

27 Jul 2021

An Epigenetic Modeling Approach for Adaptive Prognostics of Engineered Systems

Abstract: Prognostics and health management (PHM) frameworks are widely used in engineered systems, such as manufacturing equipment, aircraft, and vehicles, to improve reliability, maintainability, and safety. Prognostic information for impending failures and remaining useful life is essential to inform decision-making by enabling cost versus risk estimates of maintenance actions. These estimates are generally provided by physics-based or data-driven models developed on historical information. Although current models provide some predictive capabilities, the ability to represent individualized dynamic factors that affect system health is limited. To address these shortcomings, we examine the biological phenomenon of epigenetics. Epigenetics provides insight into how environmental factors affect genetic expression in an organism, providing system health information that can be useful for predictions of future state. The means by which environmental factors influence epigenetic modifications leading to observable traits can be correlated to circumstances affecting system health. In this paper, we investigate the general parallels between the biological effects of epigenetic changes on cellular DNA to the influences leading to either system degradation and compromise, or improved system health. We also review a variety of epigenetic computational models and concepts, and present a general modeling framework to support adaptive system prognostics.