30 Nov 2022

Risk-Based Prioritization of Operational Condition Assessments: Methodology and Case Study Results

Abstract: USACE operates, maintains, and manages more than $232 billion of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. USACE uses the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) to allocate limited resources to assess condition of this infrastructure in efforts to minimize risks associated with performance degradation. The analysis of risk associated with flood risk management (FRM) assets includes consideration of how each asset contributes to its associated FRM watershed system, understanding the consequences of the asset’s performance degradation, and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA condition ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates a proof-of-concept application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its gates and their components. The team combines this likelihood of degradation with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a risk measure. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for a mixed-integer optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. This report documents the results of the application of this methodology to two case studies.

4 Apr 2022

Risk-Based Prioritization of Operational Condition Assessments: Jennings Randolph Case Study

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and manages over $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. Using Operational Condition Assessments (OCA), the USACE allocates limited resources to assess asset condition in efforts to minimize risks associated with asset performance degradation, but decision makers require a greater understanding of those risks. The analysis of risk associated with Flood Risk Management assets in the context of its associated watershed system includes understanding the consequences of the asset’s failure and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates an application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its subordinate gates and their components. The research team combines this likelihood with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a measure of risk. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for an optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. Proof-of-concept results for an initial case study on the Jennings Randolph Dam are provided.

4 May 2021

Investigating the USACE Operational Condition Assessment Process Current and Future

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers operates, maintains, and manages more than $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure and relies on the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) process to determine the condition of the assets and their components. The sheer number of components, all of equal OCA scheduling priority, creates challenges in ensuring that assessments are conducted in a timely manner and that data generated are of sufficient quality to inform resource allocation decisions. This research applied methods from systems design to determine the OCA system “as-is” state and create a stakeholder-informed vision of a “to-be” state that addresses current system challenges. To meet its objective of providing current assessments of asset condition, the OCA system must provide four high-level functions: provide access to asset data, conduct assessments, determine asset risk, and prioritize and schedule assessments. The development of capabilities to provide these functions will facilitate the achievement of the OCA system to-be vision: a consistent view of asset condition and risk across the enterprise.