19 Sep 2024

Case Study of Continental-Scale Hydrologic Modeling’s Ability to Predict Daily Streamflow Percentiles for Regulatory Application

Abstract: Regulatory practitioners use hydroclimatic data to provide context to observations typically collected through field site visits and aerial imagery analysis. In the absence of site-specific data, regulatory practitioners must use proxy hydroclimatic data and models to assess a stream's hydroclimatology. One intent of current-generation continental-scale hydrologic models is to provide such hydrologic context to ungaged watersheds. In this study, the ability of two state-of-the-art, operational, continental-scale hydrologic modeling frameworks, the National Water Model and the Group on Earth Observation Global Water Sustainability (GEOGloWS) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Streamflow Model, to produce daily streamflow percentiles and categorical estimates of the streamflow normalcy was examined. The modeled stream-flow percentiles were compared to observed daily streamflow percentiles at four United States Geological Survey stream gages. The model's performance was then compared to a baseline assessment methodology, the Antecedent Precipitation Tool. Results indicated that, when compared to baseline assessment techniques, the accuracy of the National Water Model (NWM) or GEOGloWS ECMWF Streamflow Model was greater than the accuracy of the baseline assessment methodology at four stream gage locations. The NWM performed best at three of the four gages. This work highlighted a novel application of current-generation continental-scale hydrologic models.

30 Apr 2021

Load and Resistance Factors for Earth Retaining, Reinforced Concrete Hydraulic Structures Based on a Reliability Index (β) Derived from the Probability of Unsatisfactory Performance (PUP): Phase 2 Study

Abstract: This technical report documents the second of a two-phase research and development (R&D) study in support of the development of a combined Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) methodology that accommodates geotechnical as well as structural design limit states for design of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) reinforced concrete, hydraulic navigation structures. To this end, this R&D effort extends reliability procedures that have been developed for other non-USACE structural systems to encompass USACE hydraulic structures. Many of these reinforced concrete, hydraulic structures are founded on and/or retain earth or are buttressed by an earthen feature. Consequently, the design of many of these hydraulic structures involves significant soil structure interaction. Development of the required reliability and corresponding LRFD procedures has been lagging in the geotechnical topic area as compared to those for structural limit state considerations and have therefore been the focus of this second-phase R&D effort. Design of an example T-Wall hydraulic structure involves consideration of five geotechnical and structural limit states. New numerical procedures have been developed for precise multiple limit state reliability calculations and for complete LRFD analysis of this example T-Wall reinforced concrete, hydraulic structure.