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Tag: Bayesian statistical decision theory
  • Metrics for Assessing Overall Performance of Inland Waterway Ports: A Bayesian Network Based Approach

    Abstract: Because ports are considered to be the heart of the maritime transportation system, thereby assessing port performance is necessary for a nation’s development and economic success. This study proposes a novel metric, namely, “port performance index (PPI)”, to determine the overall performance and utilization of inland waterway ports based on six criteria, port facility, port availability, port economics, port service, port connectivity, and port environment. Unlike existing literature, which mainly ranks ports based on quantitative factors, this study utilizes a Bayesian Network (BN) model that focuses on both quantitative and qualitative factors to rank a port. The assessment of inland waterway port performance is further analyzed based on different advanced techniques such as sensitivity analysis and belief propagation. Insights drawn from the study show that all the six criteria are necessary to predict PPI. The study also showed that port service has the highest impact while port economics has the lowest impact among the six criteria on PPI for inland waterway ports.
  • Estimating Bridge Reliability by Using Bayesian Networks

    Abstract: As part of an inspection, bridge inspectors assign condition ratings to the main components of a bridge’s structural system and identify any defects that they observe. Condition ratings are necessarily somewhat subjective, as they are influenced by the experience of the inspectors. In the current work, procedures were developed for making inferences on the reliability of reinforced concrete girders with defects at both the cross section and the girder level. The Bayesian network (BN) tools constructed in this work use simple structural mechanics to model the capacity of girders. By using expert elicitation, defects observed during inspection are correlated with underlying deterioration mechanisms. By linking these deterioration mechanisms with reductions in mechanical properties, inferences on the reliability of a bridge can be made based on visual observation of defects. With more development, this BN tool can be used to compare conditions of bridges relative to one another and aid in the prioritization of repairs. However, an extensive survey of bridges affected by deterioration mechanisms is needed to confidently establish valid relationships between deterioration severity and mechanical properties.