29 Sep 2025

State of Practice and Recommendations to Enhance Probability of Failure Estimates for Civil Works Infrastructure Components

Abstract: As the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) continues to improve its asset management system, it is imperative that maintenance investments across its wide infrastructure portfolio are maximizing risk reduction. A key component of risk is probability of failure. Presently, USACE estimates probability of failure for asset components in a variety of ways across business lines, activities, and decision spaces. This document explores the variations in the state of practice for probability of failure estimates across USACE and contrasts them with available best practices and methodologies. The review found several key gaps between the state of practice and best practices, including a lack of component failure and life data useful for time-to-failure parameter estimates, a lack of codified definitions of failure, no clear and consistent guidance for probability of failure estimates across business lines or decision spaces, and no methodologies that account for environmental variation at a facility. These gaps are addressed by a research strategy that compares and contrasts several probability of failure calculation methods using presently available data, identifies relevant life data for future collection, and defines a framework for investing in improved probability of failure assessments at facilities.

25 Jun 2020

PUBLICATION NOTICE: Applications of value modeling to USACE Civil Works and beyond

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Civil Works (CW) portfolio includes $250 billion worth of capital assets. As infrastructure ages and budgets change, new asset management (AM) investment strategies are required to support the maintenance, repair, and replacement (MR&R) of these assets while also providing the greatest value to the USACE and to the Nation. Shrinking budgets and increased scrutiny of government expenditures drive efforts to determine how best to optimize government funds for infrastructure improvement. As a result, USACE-CW AM seeks to create a value model capable of calculating the benefit of MR&R project alternatives regardless of business line. Furthermore, USACE-CW seeks to explore whether such a value model could be used for the generation of defensible budgets that consistently bring high value to the USACE and to the Nation. Thus, this special report reviews past USACE CW efforts to develop a value model for decision analytics. This report also provides an introduction to value modeling while covering applications of value modeling in multiple areas, including AM and portfolio decision analytics.