29 Sep 2025

Asset Condition and Probability of Failure Assessment–A Vision for Civil Works: A Document to Guide Collaboration and Innovation for the US Army Corps of Engineers Civil Works Asset Management System

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is rapidly improving its asset management system through a variety of research projects and other work efforts that focus on how risk, condition, and probability of failure are conceived, communicated, and used for decision-making across the agency. As these projects move forward, it is critical that USACE defines a long-term vision for condition and probability of failure assessments across the entire asset management system. This Special Report defines that vision with the goal of achieving consensus and buy-in from a variety of participants that will need to buy-in to achieve success. An additional benefit to identifying an end vision for this work is to identify collaborative opportunities and any gaps that must be addressed to achieve it.

29 Sep 2025

State of Practice and Recommendations to Enhance Probability of Failure Estimates for Civil Works Infrastructure Components

Abstract: As the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) continues to improve its asset management system, it is imperative that maintenance investments across its wide infrastructure portfolio are maximizing risk reduction. A key component of risk is probability of failure. Presently, USACE estimates probability of failure for asset components in a variety of ways across business lines, activities, and decision spaces. This document explores the variations in the state of practice for probability of failure estimates across USACE and contrasts them with available best practices and methodologies. The review found several key gaps between the state of practice and best practices, including a lack of component failure and life data useful for time-to-failure parameter estimates, a lack of codified definitions of failure, no clear and consistent guidance for probability of failure estimates across business lines or decision spaces, and no methodologies that account for environmental variation at a facility. These gaps are addressed by a research strategy that compares and contrasts several probability of failure calculation methods using presently available data, identifies relevant life data for future collection, and defines a framework for investing in improved probability of failure assessments at facilities.

25 Sep 2025

Evaluation of the Coastal Hazards System (CHS) Probabilistic Framework’s Storm Selection Methods Along the US West Coast

Purpose: This Coastal and Hydraulics Engineering Technical Note (CHETN) evaluates the application of a traditional approach to screening and sampling historical storm events to quantify wave and water-level extremal distributions along the US West Coast, specifically focusing on Washington, Oregon, and California. High-fidelity simulations of storm events enable spatially explicit waves and water-level information in shallow nearshore regions, providing greater context than single-point tide gauges, wave buoys, or hindcast wave nodes in offshore waters. However, the computational expense associated with such simulations necessitates that a select number of events be chosen, ideally representative of the same extreme distribution created by the complete history of storms. Storm selection has previously been shown to be sensitive to the observational record length and the storm sample size but notably also region-specific characteristics such as the common (and uncommon) synoptic weather patterns and the alongshore variability of metocean conditions. The US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), Coastal Hazards System (CHS), Stochastic Simulation Technique (SST), which was developed for the quantification of extratropical cyclone (XC) hazards based on extreme value analysis techniques, has previously been used to identify storms for high-fidelity simulations in several regions throughout the United States, including the Great Lakes (Nadal-Caraballo et al. 2012), US mid- and North Atlantic (Nadal-Caraballo et al. 2014; Nadal-Caraballo et al., “North Atlantic Coast,” 2015; Nadal-Caraballo et al., “Statistical Analysis,” 2015), and US South Atlantic (Yawn et al. 2024b) and Gulf of Mexico (Yawn et al. 2024a). However, coastal hazards for the US West Coast and the Pacific Basin are a consequence of multiple compounding oceanographic, meteorologic, and climatic phenomena contributing to waves and water levels with unique characteristics compared to tropical cyclone–dominated coasts. This effort defines total water levels as a combination of still-water levels (SWLs), incident wave runup, and infragravity runup as a proxy for the water elevation experienced at the shoreline during storm events. Dynamic total water levels during extreme events are then separated into individual contributions from oceanic and meteorological phenomena occurring at a variety of timescales, such as seasonal and monthly sea-level anomalies. Results from this analysis highlight future SST developments that will be required as part of a comprehensive CHS-Probabilistic Framework (CHS-PF) for the US West Coast and the Pacific Basin. Specifically, the methodology will need to (1) account for temporal clustering of storm sequences, (2) align with the parameters most relevant to US West Coast coastal storm risk management projects, and (3) develop an approach to create composite storm suites derived from extremes in multiple metocean parameters due to limited overlap between those storms that produce extremes in still water and those storms driving open-coast wave-induced extremes.

2 Sep 2025

Coastal Hazards System–Gulf of Mexico (CHS-GoM)

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers completed the South Atlantic Coastal Study (SACS) to quantify storm surge and wave hazards, expanding the Coastal Hazards System (CHS) to the South Atlantic Division (SAD) domain. The goal of CHS-SACS was to quantify coastal storm hazards for present conditions and future mean sea level fluctuation scenarios to reduce flooding risk and increase resiliency in coastal environments. CHS-SACS was completed for three regions within the SAD domain, and this report focuses on the Gulf of Mexico (CHS-GoM). This study applied the CHS’ Probabilistic Framework with Joint Probability Method Augmented by Metamodeling Prediction (JPM-AMP) to perform a probabilistic coastal hazard analysis (PCHA) of tropical cyclone (TC) and extratropical cyclone (XC) responses, including new atmospheric and hydrodynamic numerical model simulations of synthetic TCs and historical XCs. This report documents the CHS probabilistic framework for the CHS-GoM region by executing the JPM-AMP, and comprising storm climate characterization, storm sampling, storm recurrence rate estimation, marginal distributions, correlation and dependence structures of TC atmospheric-forcing parameters, development of augmented storm suites, and assignment of discrete storm weights to the synthetic TCs. Coastal hazards were quantified for annual exceedance frequencies over the range of 10 yr−1 to 10−4 yr−1.

19 Feb 2025

Autonomous Cyberdefense Introduces Risk; Can We Manage the Risk?

Abstract: We discuss the human role in the design and control of cyberdefenses. We focus on machine learning training and algorithmic feedback and constraints, with the aim of motivating a discussion on achieving trust in autonomous cyberdefenses.

11 Sep 2024

Coastal Hazards System–South Atlantic (CHS-SA)

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers completed the South Atlantic Coastal Study (SACS) to quantify storm surge and wave hazards, allowing for the expansion of the Coastal Hazards System (CHS) to the South Atlantic Division (SAD) domain. The goal of CHS-SACS was to quantify storm hazards for present conditions and future sea level rise scenarios to reduce flooding risk and increase resiliency in coastal environments. CHS-SACS was completed for three regions within the SAD domain, and this report focuses on the South Atlantic (CHS-SA). This study applied the CHS’ Probabilistic Framework with Joint Probability Method Augmented by Metamodeling Prediction (JPM-AMP) to perform a probabilistic coastal hazard analysis (PCHA) of tropical cyclone (TC) and extratropical cyclone (XC) responses, leveraging new atmospheric and hydrodynamic numerical model simulations of synthetic TCs and historical XCs. This report documents the CHS probabilistic framework to perform the PCHA for CHS-SA by executing the JPM-AMP, including storm climate characterization, storm sampling, storm recurrence rate estimation, marginal distributions, correlation and dependence structures of TC atmospheric-forcing parameters, development of augmented storm suites, and assignment of discrete storm weights to the synthetic TCs. Coastal hazards were estimated for annual exceedance frequencies over the range of 10 yr−1 to 10−4 yr−1.

11 Sep 2024

New Metrics for Managing Waterways: Vessel Encroachment Volume for Selected South Atlantic Division Ports

Abstract: The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) uses two metrics to evaluate maintenance for coastal navigation projects: cargo tonnage at the associated port and the controlling depth in the channel relative to the authorized channel depth. These are calculated through normal business practices and describe the relative importance (tonnage) of the port and the operating condition (controlling depth) of the channel. They are incorporated into a risk-based decision framework that directs funds to locations where channel conditions have deteriorated. Using Automatic Identification System (AIS) vessel-position data, USACE is pioneering the computation of metrics related to the space between the hull of transiting vessels and the waterway bed for channels, the underkeel clearance. This and related metrics describe how waterway users take advantage of the service provided directly by USACE (maintained channel depth). This study compares the underkeel clearance metrics among 13 ports in the South Atlantic Division over a span of 3 years by combining marine vessel AIS data, tidal predictions, channel bathymetric surveys, and vessel sailing draft. Comparing these values across ports allows these metrics to be integrated into the decision framework that drives dredge funding allocations.v

8 Jan 2024

RISC TAMER Framework: Resilient Installation Support Against Compound Threats Analysis and Mitigation for Equipment and Resources Framework

Every day, decision-makers must allocate resources based on the best available information at the time. Military installations face a variety of threats which challenge sustained functionality of their supporting and supported deployable systems. Considering the compounding and interdependent impacts of the threats, both specified (what is known) and unspecified (what is not known) and the investments needed to address these threats adds value to the decision-making process. Current risk management practices are generally evaluated via scenario analyses that do not consider compound threats, resulting in limited risk management solutions. Current practices also challenge the ability of decision-makers to increase resilience against such threats. The Resilient Installation Support against Compound Threats Analysis and Mitigation for Equipment and Resources (RISC TAMER) Framework establishes a decision support structure to identify and categorize system components, compound threats and risks, and system relationships to provide decision-makers with more complete and comprehensive information from which to base resilience-related decisions, for prevention and response. This paper focuses on the development process for RISC TAMER framework to optimize resilience enhancements for a wide variety of deployable systems in order to implement resilience strategies to protect assets, to increase adaptability, and to support power projection and global operations.

8 Dec 2022

Coastal Hazards System–Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands (CHS-PR)

Abstract: The South Atlantic Coastal Study (SACS) was completed by the US Army Corps of Engineers to quantify storm surge and wave hazards allowing for the expansion of the Coastal Hazards System (CHS) to the South Atlantic Division (SAD) domain. The goal of the CHS-SACS was to quantify coastal storm hazards for present conditions and future sea level rise (SLR) scenarios to aid in reducing flooding risk and increasing resiliency in coastal environments. CHS-SACS was completed for three regions within the SAD domain, and this report focuses on the Coastal Hazards System–Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands (CHS-PR). This study applied the CHS Probabilistic Coastal Hazard Analysis (PCHA) framework for quantifying tropical cyclone (TC) responses, leveraging new atmospheric and hydrodynamic numerical model simulations of synthetic TCs developed explicitly for the CHS-PR region. This report focuses on documenting the PCHA conducted for CHS-PR, including the characterization of storm climate, storm sampling, storm recurrence rate estimation, marginal distributions, correlation and dependence structure of TC atmospheric-forcing parameters, development of augmented storm suites, and assignment of discrete storm weights to the synthetic TCs. As part of CHS-PR, coastal hazards were estimated for annual exceedance frequencies over the range of 10 yr⁻¹ to 10⁻⁴ yr⁻¹.

31 Aug 2022

Coastal Hazards System–Louisiana (CHS-LA)

Abstract: The US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL) expanded the Coastal Hazards System (CHS) to quantify storm surge and wave hazards for coastal Louisiana. The CHS Louisiana (CHS-LA) coastal study was sponsored by the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) and the New Orleans District (MVN), US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to support Louisiana’s critical coastal infrastructure and to ensure the effectiveness of coastal storm risk management projects. The CHS-LA applied the CHS Probabilistic Coastal Hazard Analysis (PCHA) framework to quantify tropical cyclone (TC) responses, leveraging new atmospheric and hydrodynamic numerical model simulations of synthetic TCs developed explicitly for the Louisiana region. This report focuses on documenting the PCHA conducted for the CHS-LA, including details related to the characterization of storm climate, storm sampling, storm recurrence rate estimation, marginal distributions, correlation and dependence structure of TC atmospheric-forcing parameters, development of augmented storm suites, and assignment of discrete storm weights to the synthetic TCs. As part of CHS-LA, coastal hazards were estimated within the study area for annual exceedance frequencies (AEFs) over the range of 10 yr-1 to 1×10-4 yr-1.