PUBLICATION NOTICE: Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Framework Development: Extreme Rainfall Analysis

The US Army Engineer Research and Development Center has published the report/note described and linked below. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Report Number:

ERDC/CHL TR-19-14

Title:

Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Framework Development: Extreme Rainfall Analysis 

Author(s):

Brian E. Skahill and Joseph Kanney

Purpose/Abstract:

This report introduces a framework for probabilistic flood hazard assessment (PFHA) whose basis leverages recent advances in the science of spatial extremes. The framework basis includes a latent variable model (LVM) or a max-stable process application wherein for either case model inference is likelihood based. The framework is flexible in that it can leverage robust approaches to quantify model uncertainty while also supporting the capacity to readily combine additional relevant data types; for example, historical and/or paleoflood data for flood frequency analyses. This report profiles applications of Bayesian inference for flood hazard curve development for at-site and spatial LVM analyses. Pointwise spatial model development using an LVM or a max-stable process requires the parameters of the model characterizing the pointwise extremes to vary spatially as a function of gridded covariate data relevant to the hydrometeorological extreme under consideration. Recent advances in mathematical regularization facilitate spatial pointwise model reduction. The PFHA framework accommodates the multiple model parameterizations encapsulated within a given LVM or max-stable process deployment by generalizing model choice using information criteria.

124 pgs / 6 mb

CLASSIFICATION: UNCLASSIFIED

ERDC is a diverse research organization with approximately 2,000 employees operating more than $1 billion in world class facilities at seven laboratories. Its annual program exceeds $1 billion as it supports the Department of Defense and other agencies in military and civilian projects. Principal research areas include Soldier support, Engineered Resilient Systems, Environmental Quality and Installations, Geospatial Research and Engineering, Military Engineering, and Water Resources.  “Discover ▪ Develop ▪ Deliver” ERDCinfo@usace.army.mil