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PUBLICATION NOTICE: Tools for Predicting Wildlife Species Distribution Response to Ecological Shifts

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
Published July 24, 2019

The US Army Engineer Research and Development Center has published the report/note described and linked below. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Report Number:



Tools for Predicting Wildlife Species Distribution Response to Ecological Shifts


Austin Davis, Ashley Fuentes, Jacob F. Jung, Heather Theel, Eric Britzke, and Richard A. Fischer


The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) serves as the Nation's environmental engineer. Within this capacity, the USACE designs, plans, oversees, and manages multiple civil works and military construction efforts. The advancement of sustainable design and development practices that beneficially integrate engineering and ecology is a goal of USACE projects. Once completed, USACE projects are often in service for many decades; therefore, USACE planners must consider long-term changes in the environmental setting of each project (Cann 2010). Wildlife distributions change over time in response to the gain and loss of habitat, as well as other natural processes. Regulatory actions, such as the designation of critical habitat under the Endangered Species Act, can allow for habitat to be preserved promoting source populations that can expand their distribution if conditions are favorable. The listing or de-listing of Threatened and Endangered Species can have direct impacts on USACE projects coming to fruition after years of planning. In an effort to predict potential impacts to USACE restoration sites from species range shifts either into or out of an area, this technical note provides a methodological framework and promotes a model design that has the capacity to inform future decision making.

10 pgs / 685 kb


ERDC is a diverse research organization with approximately 2,000 employees operating more than $1 billion in world class facilities at seven laboratories. Its annual program exceeds $1 billion as it supports the Department of Defense and other agencies in military and civilian projects. Principal research areas include Soldier support, Engineered Resilient Systems, Environmental Quality and Installations, Geospatial Research and Engineering, Military Engineering, and Water Resources.  “Discover ▪ Develop ▪ Deliver”

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Release no. 19-045